基于分布式水文模型的中小河流洪水预报技术   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

刘志雨  侯爱中  王秀庆 《水文》2015,35(1):1-6

中小河流大多位于资料短缺的山丘区,洪水具有突发性强、汇流时间快、预见期短以及分布广的特点。中小河流洪水预报首要目的和任务是预警预报,预报方式应以自动预报为主,以实现及时预警,最大程度地避免人员伤亡,减轻灾害损失。本文分析了中小河流洪水预报的特点与难点,提出了中小河流洪水预报的思路及实用预报模型与方法,开展了基于分布式水文模型的中小河流洪水预报技术在新安江上游屯溪流域预警预报中的应用研究,以期为当前所开展的全国中小河流洪水预警预报系统建设提供参考。研究表明:分布式水文模型是资料短缺地区中小河流洪水预报的有效方法,基于分布式水文模型的洪水预报技术能够满足中小河流洪水自动预警预报的生产需要。  相似文献   

人工阶梯-深潭破坏案例与稳定性分析          下载免费PDF全文

李志威  王兆印  张晨笛  余国安  张康  漆力健 《水科学进展》2015,26(6):820-828

通过2006—2010年4个修建人工阶梯-深潭系统的治理山区河流案例,总结其治理效果和最终破坏原因.以单个阶梯为分析对象,给出其受力表达式,建立单个阶梯-深潭的简化稳定性模型,进而分析来流量和冲刷角变化对其稳定性的影响.单个阶梯的稳定性取决于关键石块粒径、河道坡降、流量和冲刷角.洪水期的洪峰流量和阶梯下游冲刷是阶梯破坏的主要原因,上游来流量增加和冲刷角越大,阶梯越易发生破坏.人工阶梯-深潭系统在洪水期的稳定性是其发挥长期治理效果的关键.  相似文献   

论感潮河段航运工程水文标准分界与衔接          下载免费PDF全文

张幸农  陈长英  刘慧 《水科学进展》2015,26(5):707-713

针对中国河流与海岸交界处感潮河段航运工程水文标准存在的问题,特别是设计水位的确定及其衔接和水流、泥沙分析方法的差异,进行区段划分和标准衔接关系的研究.通过阐述感潮河段区段及基本特征,分析了各类航运工程的水文指标,提出以"月平均潮位年变幅多年平均值" 和"多年平均潮差"两特征值的比值作为感潮河段不同区段划分的依据指标,并通过实例计算,论证了航运工程水文标准分界及其衔接关系.结果表明,该指标反映了感潮河段不同区段水文条件受径流和潮汐的影响程度,依据其不同取值,可对航运工程水文标准予以分界,形成较好的衔接.  相似文献   

中国大陆降水时空变异规律——I.气候学特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

任国玉  战云健  任玉玉  陈峪  王涛  柳艳菊  孙秀宝 《水科学进展》2015,26(3):299-310

为系统了解大尺度降水气候特征,利用2 300多个国家级气象站逐日观测资料,分析了中国大陆1956—2013年多年平均降水的空间分布和季节性变化规律。主要新认识有:① 暴雨量、暴雨日数和暴雨强度最高的站点在华南沿海,而小雨量、小雨日数最多的站点主要在江南内陆山区、丘陵;东部季风区山地、丘陵多出现低强度降水,平原和沿海易出现高强度降水;② 四季降水量均由西北内陆向东南沿海递增,南方秋季降水量明显小于春季,但华西和江南沿海秋季降水量较多,冬季降水在东南丘陵出现高值中心;③ 珠江和东南诸河流域降水量年内存在2个峰值,其中珠江流域有6月主峰值和8月次峰值,东南诸河流域主峰在6月中下旬,次峰在8月末,长江流域总体表现为单峰型,出现在6月下旬和7月初,西南诸河流域和北方所有流域降水均表现为夏季单峰型;④ 南方各大河流域从2月末到6月中下旬陆续进入雨季,北方各大河流域进入雨季时间集中在6月末、7月初;南、北方雨季结束时间比雨季开始时间集中,从南到北进入雨季时间持续120 d以上,而从北到南退出雨季时间则仅持续不到45 d;⑤ 丰雨期的持续时间,珠江流域从5月初到9月上旬后期,东南诸河从5月上旬到7月上旬,8月末到9月初再度短暂出现,长江流域从6月中下旬到7月中旬,西南诸河从7月中旬到 8月下旬,淮河流域从7月上旬至7月底、8月初,辽河流域在8月初出现极短丰雨期;⑥ 降水年际变异性最高的站点在青藏高原西南、塔里木盆地、阿拉善高原、华北平原北部和汾河谷地,海河流域年降水具有最大的变异系数。  相似文献   

The potential for agricultural land use change to reduce flood risk in a large watershed          下载免费PDF全文

Keith E. Schilling  Philip W. Gassman  Catherine L. Kling  Todd Campbell  Manoj K. Jha  Calvin F. Wolter  Jeffrey G. Arnold 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3314-3325

Effects of agricultural land management practices on surface runoff are evident at local scales, but evidence for watershed‐scale impacts is limited. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to assess changes in downstream flood risks under different land uses for the large, intensely agricultural, Raccoon River watershed in Iowa. We first developed a baseline model for flood risk based on current land use and typical weather patterns and then simulated the effects of varying levels of increased perennials on the landscape under the same weather patterns. Results suggest that land use changes in the Raccoon River could reduce the likelihood of flood events, decreasing both the number of flood events and the frequency of severe floods. The duration of flood events were not substantially affected by land use change in our assessment. The greatest flood risk reduction was associated with converting all cropland to perennial vegetation, but we found that converting half of the land to perennial vegetation or extended rotations (and leaving the remaining area in cropland) could also have major effects on reducing downstream flooding potential. We discuss the potential costs of adopting the land use change in the watershed to illustrate the scale of subsidies required to induce large‐scale conversion to perennially based systems needed for flood risk reduction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An inter‐basin backwater overflow (the Buhai Brook and the Ezer reservoir on the Jijia River,Romania)          下载免费PDF全文

Gheorghe Romanescu  Cristian Stoleriu 《水文研究》2014,28(7):3118-3131

During the last few years, the north‐western part of Romania has been affected by catastrophic floods with most of the watercourses reaching their highest recorded discharges. This study reports the generation of a numerical terrain model and the simulation of a backwater phenomenon at elevation steps according to the volume of water accumulated at the confluence of the Buhai Brook with the Jijia River. The hydrological data are complemented by rainfall data and the careful recording of the flood behaviour during the entire period of its development. The main aim of the study is to identify the causes of the backwater phenomenon and to highlight the material damage inflicted on the town of Dorohoi. At the same time, the study uses cartographic model that was developed to establish which areas are at risk of flooding at various levels of probability. The catastrophic flood began on the Buhai Brook, a slow‐flowing stream that drains the areas to the west of the town of Dorohoi and discharged into the upstream sector of the Jijia confluence. The flood caused two types of backwater waves: one behind the bridges and the houses built on the floodplain and a second that followed the course of the main stem (Jijia) upstream from the confluence, flooding the Ezer Lake, which was created specifically to attenuate such floods. The spillway backwater phenomenon was inter‐basin as it did not occur in a single hydrographic basin. The causes of the catastrophic flash flood and of the inter‐basin backwater overflow are natural but also reflect anthropogenic influence. After the lake filled, the discharge into the Jijia was controlled and the flooding downstream was thus greatly diminished. Though fortuitous, the backwater flooding was important in mitigating the impact of the flood wave from the Jijia River. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Topographical Mapping of a Bare Tidal Flat Outside a Mangrove Area based on the Waterline Method and an Iterative Hydrodynamic Model: A Case Study of Yingluo Bay,South China     

Yali Qi  Xin Huang  Xiaoqiang Pu 《Marine Geodesy》2019,42(3):263-285

A change in the elevation of bare tidal flats outside a mangrove area is an indispensable factor for the sustainable development of mangroves. Waterline extraction, as an effective and economical tool used in reconstructing the terrain of an intertidal zone, has been widely applied to open-coast tidal flats by constructing a digital elevation model (DEM). However, mangrove wetlands are usually located in wave-sheltered sites, such as estuaries and bays that have narrow tidal channels flanked by tidal flats. Changes in water level are affected by the dry-wet processes of complex landforms caused by tides. This article takes as a study case the area of Yingluo Bay, which covers the core region of the Zhanjiang and Shankou National Mangrove National Nature Reserve in southwestern China. Waterline extraction based on seventeen multisource and multispectral satellite images obtained from December 2014 to April 2015, combining the finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) hydrodynamic model in an iterative process, was used to generate a topographical map of the bare tidal flat outside the mangrove area in Yingluo Bay. The quality of the iterative DEMs was evaluated via six transects of a ground-based survey using Real - time kinematic (RKT) GPS in May 2015. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the DEM decreased with an increase in the number of iterations. In this study, the DEM in the third iteration was used as the final output because the difference from the previous iterative DEM satisfied an inversion-stopping criterion. The MAE and RMSE of the final DEM with the measured data were 0.072 and 0.09?m, respectively, without considering small tidal creeks. The method used in this study can be an effective and highly precise approach for detecting and reconstructing the historical terrain of a bare tidal flat outside a mangrove area. This work also has great importance regarding intertidal resource management and the sustainable development of mangroves facing the vulnerable coastal ecological environment.  相似文献   

一种新型鲸鱼式潮流能发电装置的设计与试验研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王世明  李泽宇  申玉  陈炳 《海洋工程》2019,37(3):128-135

为了进一步提高潮流能的利用率,提出了一种新型鲸鱼式潮流能发电装置。借鉴风机叶片设计方法及水平轴水轮机的设计原理,利用结构力学、流体力学和CFD相关方法,对该装置的螺旋桨叶、导流筒和固定桩等部件进行了设计研究,从获能效果、装置可靠性和发电功率等方面进行了优化设计,并通过900 W样机试验验证了设计的有效性。试验结果显示,海流高潮期装置最大发电功率可达到980 W,一天内大约有4个缓潮期,此间发电功率明显下降,但持续时间不长,总体平均发电功率在800 W上下;同时潮流能轮机启动流速在0.41 m/s左右,有着良好的低速启动性能。  相似文献   

一套有效简易验潮站建设方案的设计     

刘望华  董炜烽 《海洋技术学报》2018,(2):110-113

简易验潮站具有投资少、见效快的优点,是长期验潮站的一种有益补充。作者对厦门地区简易验潮站建设与应用情况进行了系统总结,提出了一种简易验潮站的建设方案。该方案经实践检验证明可以解决在一定环境条件下简易验潮站长期、连续、准确验潮的问题,从而提高社会效益和经济效益,具有良好的推广示范价值。  相似文献   

Scales of predator detection behavior and escape in Fissurella limbata: A field and laboratory assessment          下载免费PDF全文

Tatiana Manzur  Avia Gonzalez‐Mendez  Bernardo R. Broitman 《Marine Ecology》2018,39(2)

The consumptive effects of predators are widely acknowledged, but predation can also impact prey populations through non‐consumptive effects (NCEs) such as costly antipredator behavioral responses. The magnitude of antipredator behavioral responses by prey is determined by an assessment of risk using sensory cues, which in turn is modulated by the environmental context. We studied the detection behavior and escape response of the keyhole limpet Fissurella limbata from the predatory sea star Heliaster helianthus. Through laboratory and field experimental trials, we quantified the distance and time of predator detection behavior by the prey, and measured their active escape responses when elicited. We found that predator detection by the limpet was chiefly mediated by distance, with experimental individuals capable of detecting predator presence effectively up to distances of at least 50 cm in the field and 70 cm under laboratory conditions. Our results indicate that this prey species is able to evaluate the proximity of its predator and use it as an indication of predation risk; therefore, predator–prey distance appears to be a primary predictor of the magnitude of the antipredator response. Given the tight relationship between predator distance and prey movement and the important role herbivores can play, particularly in this ecosystem, we expect that NCEs will cascade to the patterns of abundance and composition of rocky shore communities through changes in prey foraging behavior under risk.  相似文献